First Republican Debate: Which Candidates Qualify Under the New Rules?

On Friday, the Republican National Committee released the requirements for candidates to participate in the first GOP presidential primary debate set for August 23, 2023, in Milwaukee.

Among the new rules, an 1% minimum polling threshold was announced along with a minimum of 40,000 donors that include 200 unique donors per state in at least 20 states or territories. The polling can consist of three national polls where the candidate reaches 1% or two national polls and one state poll.

Also, while there is currently only one debate night expected for the first event, there is a chance of adding a second consecutive night if the number of qualifying candidates continues to grow:

The Republican National Committee has scheduled the first debate of the presidential primary season for Aug. 23 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and could add another session the following day if enough candidates qualify, the RNC announced Friday.

The committee also laid out the criteria required for candidates to participate. Candidates must have at least 1% in three national polls, or 1% in two national polls and one early state poll recognized by the RNC. They must also have a minimum of 40,000 unique donors, including at least 200 unique donors in 20 individual states or territories.

“I am excited to announce the criteria for our first presidential primary debate in Milwaukee on August 23,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said in a statement. “The RNC is committed to putting on a fair, neutral, and transparent primary process and the qualifying criteria set forth will put our party and eventual nominee in the best position to take back the White House come November 2024.”

The rules seem fair and straightforward. There is plenty of time between now and August when the final poll and donor numbers will be considered for participation. If a candidate hasn’t yet been able to reach some modicum of national support by then, their candidacy doesn’t have a chance.

Based on the current requirements, there are at least five candidates that would immediately qualify for the August 23 debate.

Qualifying Candidates

• Donald Trump
• Ron DeSantis
• Nikki Haley
• Tim Scott
• Vivek Ramaswamy

Potential Qualifiers

• Mike Pence (Expected to announce on June 7)
• Chris Christie (Expected to announce on June 6)
• Larry Elder
• Chris Sununu (Still considering)
• Asa Hutchinson

Unlikely to Qualify

• Doug Burgum (Expected to announce soon)
• Perry Johnson
• Ryan Binkley
• Mike Rogers (Will announce soon)
• Will Hurd (Will announce soon)

For the moment, the list looks like it could swell to around ten names assuming no other big-name candidate joins the race. There was no word on what threshold would cause the debate to break into multiple nights. It would seem that ten candidates on stage, perhaps up to eleven or twelve, would be the absolute maximum for a single-night event.

On the other hand, Breaking a field of ten into five one night and five the following night would provide more speaking time to each candidate, something the peripheral candidates would appreciate. A ten-person event would end up being mostly dominated by Trump and DeSantis.

However, what if the five/five split ended up putting Trump and DeSantis on different nights? Would Fox News want to sacrifice the epic ratings for a battle of the titans?

There’s still the possibility that Trump boycotts the debate for various reasons, an idea he floated back in April, so there’s always a wildcard scenario.

Follow the 2024 GOP Debate schedule page for all the details including the live stream information and to see which candidates will qualify.