Has the recent indictment of former President Donald Trump done much to erode his primary support?
Not at the moment, according to the latest CBS/YouGov poll of Republican primary voters.
According to the data, voters see the indictment as little more than a politically motivated hit job:
Republican primary voters say they’re far more concerned that Donald Trump’s indictment is politically motivated than his alleged conduct being a national security risk — and there’s no evidence it’s hurt his status as the clear front-runner for the 2024 nomination, at least not yet. He remains well ahead of rivals in both consideration and vote choice.
In fact, most Republican primary voters would not generally consider him keeping the alleged documents with nuclear systems or military plans to be a national security risk, in and of itself.
Most explicitly ruled out the charges announced in the indictment changing their views about Mr. Trump. Rather than being disqualifying in their eyes, even if he’s ultimately convicted of a crime in the matter, they overwhelmingly feel he should still be able to serve as president again.
Hardest hit: Ron DeSantis
If GOP primary voters are still willing to pull the lever for Trump even following a possible conviction, where does that leave the rest of the field? Fighting over the scraps Trump leaves behind basically.
Trump has typically been stuck in the mid to high fifties but the most recent YouGov clocks him at hitting at over 60 percent support. Perhaps more interesting than the straightforward “Who are you likely to vote for” question is the question of “Which candidates are you considering?”
In that question, Trump still remains the favorite:
Fifty-one percent of voters are willing to consider DeSantis, but three-quarters of voters are willing to consider Trump. That leaves a sliver of hope for the anti-Trump DeSantis crowd but not much. A lot–and I mean a lot–of Trump’s support would have to turn following this indictment for DeSantis or anyone else to make some headway.
This isn’t a case where there’s a ten or even twenty-point gap, Trump is holding nearly a forty-point gap over his closest challenger with little indication that the Justice Department has the means to separate the former president from his most ardent backers.
Granted, Trump will be appearing in a Miami courtroom on Tuesday and the rest of the indictment has yet to unfold. It’s early in the process, which is true, and maybe something like an actual conviction would move more voters than they’re willing to admit.
Until then, it’s still Trump’s primary to lose.
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