Predictive Professor Calls 2024 Election (With Today’s Circumstances)

In the last two presidential elections, we have offered articles about Dr. Allan Richtman, because he has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the last ten presidential elections, including Donald Trump’s unexpected win in 2016.

This year, he notes that there may be unpredictable variables, such as having a serious third-party candidate, who would split the anti-Trump vote. But he already has a prediction, based on current circumstances.

Here’s what he has to say, according to The Guardian:

“Trump is the mainstream,” said Allan Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, pointing out that “so-called mainstream Republicans” such as Liz Cheney are now out of office.

Lichtman, who wrote The Keys to the White House, which breaks down a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections, said there was no polarization within the Republican party and denied Trump is not a real conservative. . .

“Republican contenders haven’t challenged any of Trump’s policies. They might be talking about his electability, his character, but they haven’t challenged what he stands for,” Lichtman said.

Lichtman is not the only one who points that out, while there are candidates, such as Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson, running “against” Trump, even they are not taking seriously different stands on fundamentals.

David Bateman, a political scientist at Cornell [says]. . . Republicans are not looking for someone different [from] Trump – just someone less mercurial.

Nieheisel, of Buffalo University, says that since that Trump is erratic may carry over to the general election. That is, November voters would rather have “boring” than “a loose cannon.”

Niehiesel said voters were going to see stability versus a wildcard. People are not interested in the soap-opera aspects of Trump’s candidacy, he added, meaning many Republicans will stay home or cross the aisle.

“Barring something else happening,” he said, “I think it’s really Biden’s to lose if that ends up being the match-up.”

Back to Lichtman, he has developed a system for predicting presidential elections, that has worked in nine of the ten elections since 1984. He failed in 2000, thinking that Al Gore would win because of Bill Clinton’s popularity. However, it could be argued that Gore defeated himself, by running “away” from Clinton, and even choosing Clinton’s biggest critic (Joe Lieberman) as his running mate. But Lichtman was right about Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden. (Some contend that 2000 should have gone to Gore, due to errors in Florida—like “hanging chads,” confusion over the “butterfly ballot” giving Gore votes to third-party Ralph Nader, disqualified Black voters, and more.)

Lichtman contends that the campaign doesn’t matter—the ads, speeches, endorsements, rallies, platforms, promises, or campaign tactics. Instead, he says, the public votes on its “feelings” toward the candidates, based on their actual performance. This year is unique, in that the public has a presidential track record for both candidates.

Here are Lichtman’s 13 “keys to the White House.”

1. Party Mandate After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds
   more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did
   after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party
   nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy – The economy is not in recession during the election
   campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or
   exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in
   national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major
   scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major
    failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major
    success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a
    national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic
    or a national hero.

In a YouTube presentation from January, Lichtman said that Trump lost in 2020 largely because of the economic disruption from Covid, and Trump’s reaction to Black Lives Matter.

More recently, Lichtman suggests that Biden has the advantage in another faceoff with Trump. One of the major “keys” to Biden’s advantage is incumbency. Even as an incumbent, Trump lost in 2020. Likewise, there are no serious challengers to Biden, that’s a second “key.” The Democratic performance in the 2022 midterms is yet another positive key for Biden.

At this point, there doesn’t seem to be a serious 3rd party challenge. However, if the current “Unity” project succeeds, all bets will be off for Biden, because he would be the loser of most of those voters because more Democrats would be willing to bolt their party.

Lichtman delved a little deeper in a radio interview back in April:

He noted that his “keys” suggesting a Trump loss in 2020 are still with him, in addition to losing incumbency.

As for Biden, while he can’t claim “charisma,” most of the other technical keys tend his way. Lichtman notes that Biden’s strong leadership of NATO helps with key number 11. Also, while state legislatures have pushed the anti-abortion issue, when voters are allowed to decide, the issue has been unanimously decided against anti-abortion laws. And, of course, it is individual voters, and not gerrymandered representatives, who decide presidential elections.

And, finally, Lichtman was asked about the age issue. He says it’s not a new concern. Back in 1984, it was Democrats who questioned Reagan’s fitness. Reagan put the issue to rest with a quip that he won’t hold Walter Mondale’s youth against him. And, of course, four decades later, “80 is the new 70.”

Lichtman says, barring an unforeseen health issue, Biden’s age should not impact him negatively.