A new poll out this week shed some light on just how tight the presidential race might be in the Old Dominion.
According to new numbers from a Roanoke College poll, former President Donald Trump is tied with President Joe Biden in a hypothetical matchup among voters in Virginia, according to The Hill:
A Roanoke College survey puts the pair of presidential hopefuls at 42 percent each in a one-on-one contest in the state, the first time the pollster has found Biden and Trump tied.
Biden is boosted to a 2-point lead over Trump — 40 percent to 38 percent — when other candidates are included, but that difference is within the poll’s margin of error.
Just 2 percent of likely voters in Old Dominion said they’re undecided at this point in the campaign, but 14 percent in a Biden-Trump match-up and 20 percent in a five-way race said they’ll vote for a candidate other than the two major party nominees.
“These results suggest that Virginia could be ‘in play’ in November,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and a professor emeritus at Roanoke College, “but five months is an eternity in politics.”
When reporting the poll, some news outlets have labeled the state as “deep-blue,” but that description isn’t the whole story. Virginia has leaned left in recent years but then voters made a sharp right turn to elect a statewide Republican sweep in 2021 for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General.
In 2023, however, the general assembly tilted back to the left giving Democrats control of both state legislative chambers. Democrats also made inroads during the 2022 midterms winning some contested congressional seats as well.
As for presidential politics, Virginia has voted blue since 2008. George W. Bush was the last Republican to win on the presidential line against John Kerry in 2004 by eight points.
With the Virginia suburbs around DC becoming more blue and less friendly to the GOP, it takes a mountain of rural votes to compensate for a five-point built-in advantage Democrats start with each election cycle.
In 2008 and 2012, Barack Obama won the state but only by a six-point and four-point margin respectively. In 2016, Trump came within five points of Hillary Clinton but still lost. In 2020, Biden took a nine-point win and cemented Virginia’s status as a Democrat-leaning state.
For Trump to secure Virginia in 2024 would mean a 10-point shift away from Democrats with Biden at the top of the ticket. Given Glenn Youngkin’s victory in 2021 which did just that, it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility for Virginia to be in play for Trump this year.
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