2024 Election Night Guide: What States to Watch Hour by Hour

It’s time for our quadrennial post on how to watch the Election Day returns for early hints about where the night may be headed.

Election Day is Tuesday, November 5, 2024

The Short Answer: Watch Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina for early signs of a Trump wave or a Trump bust

If you don’t have time to read the whole post, the Cliffs Notes answer is to watch Florida and North Carolina but don’t be fooled by early numbers. Eric Daugherty, an indispensable election resource on X provides some context for the early tea leaves:

REMEMBER: States count votes differently, in different orders.

For instance, Trump will lead Virginia early in the night. Florida will be the most Democratic earlier in the night because that’s the mail-in and early vote drop… before the election day drop.

I recommend not watching the results as a “horserace.” Every vote will be counted… what matters is the candidate’s lead or deficit in areas they need to be performing well in, so long as enough of the vote is in.

For instance: Allegheny County, PA should have their vote in pretty quick. Watch it. If Trump is out-doing 2016 there with most of the vote in… safe to say his odds rise in PA.

Plus – the New York Times “needle” is not foolproof (got GA wrong in 2020), but it gives you an idea as to the range of outcomes based on the votes that have been counted.

WATCH Georgia and North Carolina for statewide results first… PA will still be slower, and obviously, WI, MI and the West Coast swing states will take longer too.

GA and NC will set the tone for the night. If Trump is thrashing in North Carolina AND Georgia… that bodes well for PA and the other battlegrounds.

In other words, the early early returns are skewed and it’s best to wait until some of the bellwether counties start reporting.

Florida announces all its early and mail-in votes as soon as the polls close on Election Day. This means the early numbers from Florida always skew blue and are typically beaten back into the red column once the actual Election Day numbers start rolling in. This year, the Florida early vote is already looking extremely red so it’s possible Democrats will never come close to putting a lead on the board in the Sunshine State. It’s not whether Trump wins Florida, it’s the margin of how much he wins Florida that will provide some insight.

Poll Closing Times Map

Here’s the complete map by county of poll closing times. Note that many states span multiple time zones so their closing times are staggered, often by county.

The states to watch are basically all those shaded in light blue since they will close the earliest in the evening.

7:00 pm ET

Polls close statewide in the first six states:

• 28 electoral votes lean toward Trump: Indiana, Kentucky and South Carolina
• 3 electoral votes lean toward Harris: Vermont
• 13 electoral votes tilt toward Harris: Virginia
• 16 toss-up votes: Georgia

7:30 pm ET

Polls close in three more states:

• 21 electoral votes lean toward Trump: Ohio and West Virginia
• 16 toss-up votes: North Carolina

8:00 pm ET

Polls close in 17 states, including Pennsylvania:

• 4 electoral votes lean toward Trump: Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District
• 74 electoral votes lean toward Harris: Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Washington, DC
• 23 toss-up votes: Pennsylvania and New Hampshire

8:30 pm ET

Polls close in Arkansas

• 6 electoral votes lean toward Trump in Arkansas

9:00 pm ET

Polls close in 15 states:

• 73 electoral votes lean toward Trump, including Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Louisiana
• 54 electoral votes lean toward Harris, including New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District
• 36 toss-up votes: Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan

10:00 pm ET

Polls close in 3 states:

• 10 electoral votes lean toward Trump, including Utah and Montana
• 6 toss-up votes: Nevada

11:00 pm ET

Polls close in 4 states:

• 4 electoral votes lean toward Trump: Idaho
• 74 electoral votes lean toward Harris, including California, Oregon, and Washington

12:00 am ET (Nov. 6)

Polls close in Hawaii:

• 4 electoral votes lean toward Harris

1:00 am ET (Nov. 6)

Polls close in Alaska:

• 3 electoral votes lean toward Trump