Jeb Bush down to five percent in latest Iowa caucus poll

Yes, that’s 5% as in not even cracking the top five in the latest poll of Iowa Republican caucus voters from Quinnipiac. Bush has yet to perform well in Iowa, but to see him drop so far down is actually quite surprising to me given that he does have fairly strong support in Republican circles.

Report from the The Weekly Standard:

A new Quinnipiac poll of likely Iowa Republican presidential caucusgoers finds Wisconsin’s Scott Walker in front of the GOP pack with 21 percent support and a 9-point advantage over his closest primary opponents. That’s down from 25 percent and a 12-point lead in Quinnipiac’s February poll, but Walker remains ahead of his Republican rivals, with senators Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, all huddled together behind the Wisconsin governor. This jibes with the Real Clear Politics average of polls for the Iowa caucuses, which gives Walker a 5.5-point advantage.

Getting the biggest boost in Iowa since the February Quinnipiac poll are Rubio and Cruz, who have both declared their candidacies in the last month. Rubio was polling just 4 percent in Iowa in February to 13 percent support in May. Cruz has had a similar trajectory, from 5 percent in February to 12 percent support in May. Paul is tied with Rubio at 13 percent, but that’s the exact level of support the Kentucky senator had in February.

And Huckabee, who announced Tuesday he is running for president, maintains the 11 percent support he had back in February. Huckabee previosuly ran for president in 2008, surprising lots of political observers when he won the Iowa caucuses that year.

Here is the readable breakdown:

21% – Walker
13% – Paul, Rubio (tied)
12% – Cruz
11% – Huckabee
7% – Carson
5% – Bush

I think Jeb knows he will have a hard time competing in Iowa where the most conservative voters in the GOP base come out to participate. He’s made it a point to say he’s not willing to cater his message on certain issues, like immigration, to tow the conservative line. Therefore, he’s likely setting sights on states like New Hampshire where his message is resonating better.