Iowa poll: Sanders 41%, Clinton 40%

For quite some time, Iowa had been holding steady for Hillary Clinton as challengers were unable to gain any traction. However, Bernie Sanders has broken through and is now leads Hillary by one percentage point which is essentially a statistical tie.

Report from Quinnipiac:

In a come-from-behind rally, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont is the choice of 41 percent of Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants, with 40 percent picking former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and 12 percent backing Vice President Joseph Biden, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to results of a July 2 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University showing Clinton at 52 percent, with 33 percent for Sanders and 7 percent for Biden.

Today, former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley gets 3 percent of Iowa likely Democratic Caucus participants, with 3 percent undecided.

There is a wide gender gap among Democrats today as Sanders leads Clinton 49 – 28 percent among men, with 16 percent for Biden, while Clinton leads Sanders 49 – 35 percent among women, with 9 percent for Biden.

Sanders and Biden have a higher net favorability rating than Clinton and higher ratings for honesty and empathy. Clinton has the best scores for leadership and temperament to handle an international crisis.

“Sen. Bernie Sanders has become the Eugene McCarthy of 2016,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “He is the candidate of the Democratic left, against his own party’s bosses and their prized presidential candidate, Secretary Hillary Clinton.

“Sanders has seized the momentum by offering a message more in line with disproportionately liberal primary and caucus voters.”

I’m tempted to couch this poll until we see more Iowa numbers showing a similar shift. The data was gathered from August 27 to September 8 which is the late dead of summer when many people are still on vacations and/or getting ready for back-to-school. Still, even considering the caveats, Hillary has led handily for the past six months so to see Sanders now in a tie is quite remarkable.